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text/5_results.tex

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ StackOverflow shows a very slight decrease in the average sentiment of time befo
 
 The average vote score rises right before and stays fairly constant after the change. The rise of the vote score before the change indicates an outside factor other than the inspected change that improved the vote score. By looking at the ITS itself, the change heightens the base level of the vote score, but the trend is the same after the change, indicating the change did not bring a long-term effect. Either way, the vote score is not affected by the change. 
 
-The number of questions from new contributors increases after the change while before the change is fairly constant. The number of follow-up questions from new contributors declines before the change and rises after the change. Both ITS show that new contributors ask more questions than before. 
+The number of questions from new contributors increases after the change while before the change is fairly constant. The number of follow-up questions from new contributors declines before the change and rises after the change. Both ITS show that new contributors ask more questions than before. The graph shows a good example of seasonality in data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. The month 0 indicates August. For the 1st questions, the months -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are all local minima. These months are all in December. The months -31 to -27, -19 to -15, -7 to -3, and 5 to 9 show a pattern with 3 upward spikes. During December, the people of large portions of the world are going through a holiday season which may likely explain these regular dips in contribution. The number of follow up questions also shows dips in months of December.
 
 In summary, the sentiment improves, the vote score is unaffected, and the number of questions asked by new contributors improves, suggesting that the community benefits from the change.
 
@@ -152,7 +152,7 @@ On tex.stackexchange.com the average sentiment is low compared to the other inve
 
 In stark contrast, the vote score shows a downward trend. The vote score is on a continuous downward trend with a peek around the change date but the vote score does not improve in the long term. Although there is a short window around the change date where vote scores are higher compared to before and after the change, this is not a result of the change but a coincidence. The vote score increases several months before the change actually occurs. The continuous downward trend with a peek around the change date does not indicate that the vote score improves in the long term. Either way, this indicates the change did not affect the vote score. 
 
-The amount of 1st questions improved after the change and turned the downward trend into an upward trend with the same grade. The number of follow-up questions does not see an improvement and continues the downward trend like before the change. This shows that more new contributors ask their 1st question than before, however, they still tend to become one-day-flies. 
+The amount of 1st questions improved after the change and turned the downward trend into an upward trend with the same grade. The number of follow-up questions does not see an improvement and continues the downward trend like before the change. This shows that more new contributors ask their 1st question than before, however, they still tend to become one-day-flies \cite{slag2015one}. Alos, the number of the 1st questions, the months of -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are local minima, indicating seasonality in the data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. Theses months are all in December where the people of large parts of the world are on holiday.
 
 In summary, the sentiment improves, the vote score is unaffected, and the number of 1st questions does improve, suggesting that the community benefits from the change.
 \begin{figure}[H]
@@ -233,7 +233,7 @@ On math.stackexchange.com the sentiment decreased before and after the change. E
 
 Similarly, the vote score does not improve either and keeps decreasing after the change. The decrease slows down a little after the change. Also, the vote score rises several months before the change, indicating an effect of an unrelated cause. The vote score analysis is inconclusive.
 
-Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions seems to stabilize a bit and is only decreasing slowly. The number of follow-up question even reverses the trend and start increasing after the change. 
+Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions seems to stabilize a bit and is only decreasing slowly. The number of follow-up question even reverses the trend and start increasing after the change. This shows a good example of seasonality in data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. The month 0 indicates August. For the 1st questions, the months -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are all a local minimum. These months are Decembers. Similarly, the months -38 and -37, -26 and -25, -14 and -13, -2 and -1, and 10 and 11 are all in June and July. During both these times the people large portions of the world are going through a holiday season which may likely explain these regular dips in contribution. The graph for the follow up questions also shows dips at the same times, although the dips in December are not always as decernible.
 
 In summary, the sentiment and vote score does not seem to be affected, however, the number of question from new contributors tends to improve. This shows users seem to be more willing to interact with the community, even though the sentiment of the interactions still decreases. The change does not indicate a clear improvement according to its goal.
 \begin{figure}[H]
@@ -265,7 +265,7 @@ On MathOverflow the sentiment shows a constant regression before the change, how
 
 The votes score steadily increases prior to the change and then quickly returns to the level from 3 years before the change. However, the vote score does not change in course at the change date but several months after the change is introduced, leading to an inconclusive result.
 
-Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions falls prior to the change and stabilizes to a constant trend thereafter. However, the number of follow-up questions that is constant before the change starts decreasing after the change. 
+Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions falls prior to the change and stabilizes to a constant trend thereafter. However, the number of follow-up questions that is constant before the change starts decreasing after the change. The number of the 1st questions, the months of -41, -29, -17, -5, and 7 are local maxima, indicating seasonality in the data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. Theses months are all in March. Also while the number of 1st questions stablized to a constant trend, the number of followup questions descreases, indicating that the new users tend more to become one-day-flies as time passed on \cite{slag2015one}.
 
 In summary, the sentiment, vote score, and the number of follow-up questions are affected negatively. Only the number of 1st questions from new contributors trend stabilizes. The change does not indicate a clear improvement according to its goal. This data set is sparse compared to the other datasets. Also, the vote scores are high compared to other datasets.
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@@ -297,7 +297,7 @@ On electronics.stackexchange.com the average sentiment decreases continuously pr
 
 Similarly, the vote score trend does not improve either and keeps decreasing after the change, however, the vote score does make a big leap upwards at the change. The vote score is trend is not affected by the change.
 
-The number of 1st questions rises continuously prior to the change but decreases thereafter. The number of follow-up questions falls slightly prior to the change and stabilizes afterward. This indicates fewer new users, and that the change negatively impacted the number of new users.
+The number of 1st questions rises continuously prior to the change but decreases thereafter. The number of follow-up questions falls slightly prior to the change and stabilizes afterward. This indicates fewer new users, and that the change negatively impacted the number of new users. However, the number of followup questions increases slighly after the change. Eventhough the number of new user decreases after the change the amount of followup questions incrases, indicating the number of one-day-flies decreases \cite{slag2015one}.
 
 In summary, the sentiment does not seem to be affected. The vote score continues its downward trend although on a higher level than before. The number of questions from new contributors trend does not show real improvements. This indicates that the change does not clearly improve interactions within the community.
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