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text/5_results.tex
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@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ StackOverflow shows a very slight decrease in the average sentiment of time befo
The average vote score rises right before and stays fairly constant after the change. The rise of the vote score before the change indicates an outside factor other than the inspected change that improved the vote score. By looking at the ITS itself, the change heightens the base level of the vote score, but the trend is the same after the change, indicating the change did not bring a long-term effect. Either way, the vote score is not affected by the change. The average vote score rises right before and stays fairly constant after the change. The rise of the vote score before the change indicates an outside factor other than the inspected change that improved the vote score. By looking at the ITS itself, the change heightens the base level of the vote score, but the trend is the same after the change, indicating the change did not bring a long-term effect. Either way, the vote score is not affected by the change.
The number of questions from new contributors increases after the change while before the change is fairly constant. The number of follow-up questions from new contributors declines before the change and rises after the change. Both ITS show that new contributors ask more questions than before. The number of questions from new contributors increases after the change while before the change is fairly constant. The number of follow-up questions from new contributors declines before the change and rises after the change. Both ITS show that new contributors ask more questions than before. The graph shows a good example of seasonality in data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. The month 0 indicates August. For the 1st questions, the months -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are all local minima. These months are all in December. The months -31 to -27, -19 to -15, -7 to -3, and 5 to 9 show a pattern with 3 upward spikes. During December, the people of large portions of the world are going through a holiday season which may likely explain these regular dips in contribution. The number of follow up questions also shows dips in months of December.
In summary, the sentiment improves, the vote score is unaffected, and the number of questions asked by new contributors improves, suggesting that the community benefits from the change. In summary, the sentiment improves, the vote score is unaffected, and the number of questions asked by new contributors improves, suggesting that the community benefits from the change.
@@ -152,7 +152,7 @@ On tex.stackexchange.com the average sentiment is low compared to the other inve
In stark contrast, the vote score shows a downward trend. The vote score is on a continuous downward trend with a peek around the change date but the vote score does not improve in the long term. Although there is a short window around the change date where vote scores are higher compared to before and after the change, this is not a result of the change but a coincidence. The vote score increases several months before the change actually occurs. The continuous downward trend with a peek around the change date does not indicate that the vote score improves in the long term. Either way, this indicates the change did not affect the vote score. In stark contrast, the vote score shows a downward trend. The vote score is on a continuous downward trend with a peek around the change date but the vote score does not improve in the long term. Although there is a short window around the change date where vote scores are higher compared to before and after the change, this is not a result of the change but a coincidence. The vote score increases several months before the change actually occurs. The continuous downward trend with a peek around the change date does not indicate that the vote score improves in the long term. Either way, this indicates the change did not affect the vote score.
The amount of 1st questions improved after the change and turned the downward trend into an upward trend with the same grade. The number of follow-up questions does not see an improvement and continues the downward trend like before the change. This shows that more new contributors ask their 1st question than before, however, they still tend to become one-day-flies. The amount of 1st questions improved after the change and turned the downward trend into an upward trend with the same grade. The number of follow-up questions does not see an improvement and continues the downward trend like before the change. This shows that more new contributors ask their 1st question than before, however, they still tend to become one-day-flies \cite{slag2015one}. Alos, the number of the 1st questions, the months of -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are local minima, indicating seasonality in the data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. Theses months are all in December where the people of large parts of the world are on holiday.
In summary, the sentiment improves, the vote score is unaffected, and the number of 1st questions does improve, suggesting that the community benefits from the change. In summary, the sentiment improves, the vote score is unaffected, and the number of 1st questions does improve, suggesting that the community benefits from the change.
\begin{figure}[H] \begin{figure}[H]
@@ -233,7 +233,7 @@ On math.stackexchange.com the sentiment decreased before and after the change. E
Similarly, the vote score does not improve either and keeps decreasing after the change. The decrease slows down a little after the change. Also, the vote score rises several months before the change, indicating an effect of an unrelated cause. The vote score analysis is inconclusive. Similarly, the vote score does not improve either and keeps decreasing after the change. The decrease slows down a little after the change. Also, the vote score rises several months before the change, indicating an effect of an unrelated cause. The vote score analysis is inconclusive.
Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions seems to stabilize a bit and is only decreasing slowly. The number of follow-up question even reverses the trend and start increasing after the change. Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions seems to stabilize a bit and is only decreasing slowly. The number of follow-up question even reverses the trend and start increasing after the change. This shows a good example of seasonality in data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. The month 0 indicates August. For the 1st questions, the months -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are all a local minimum. These months are Decembers. Similarly, the months -38 and -37, -26 and -25, -14 and -13, -2 and -1, and 10 and 11 are all in June and July. During both these times the people large portions of the world are going through a holiday season which may likely explain these regular dips in contribution. The graph for the follow up questions also shows dips at the same times, although the dips in December are not always as decernible.
In summary, the sentiment and vote score does not seem to be affected, however, the number of question from new contributors tends to improve. This shows users seem to be more willing to interact with the community, even though the sentiment of the interactions still decreases. The change does not indicate a clear improvement according to its goal. In summary, the sentiment and vote score does not seem to be affected, however, the number of question from new contributors tends to improve. This shows users seem to be more willing to interact with the community, even though the sentiment of the interactions still decreases. The change does not indicate a clear improvement according to its goal.
\begin{figure}[H] \begin{figure}[H]
@@ -265,7 +265,7 @@ On MathOverflow the sentiment shows a constant regression before the change, how
The votes score steadily increases prior to the change and then quickly returns to the level from 3 years before the change. However, the vote score does not change in course at the change date but several months after the change is introduced, leading to an inconclusive result. The votes score steadily increases prior to the change and then quickly returns to the level from 3 years before the change. However, the vote score does not change in course at the change date but several months after the change is introduced, leading to an inconclusive result.
Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions falls prior to the change and stabilizes to a constant trend thereafter. However, the number of follow-up questions that is constant before the change starts decreasing after the change. Contrary, the number of questions asked by new contributors does improve. The number of 1st questions falls prior to the change and stabilizes to a constant trend thereafter. However, the number of follow-up questions that is constant before the change starts decreasing after the change. The number of the 1st questions, the months of -41, -29, -17, -5, and 7 are local maxima, indicating seasonality in the data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. Theses months are all in March. Also while the number of 1st questions stablized to a constant trend, the number of followup questions descreases, indicating that the new users tend more to become one-day-flies as time passed on \cite{slag2015one}.
In summary, the sentiment, vote score, and the number of follow-up questions are affected negatively. Only the number of 1st questions from new contributors trend stabilizes. The change does not indicate a clear improvement according to its goal. This data set is sparse compared to the other datasets. Also, the vote scores are high compared to other datasets. In summary, the sentiment, vote score, and the number of follow-up questions are affected negatively. Only the number of 1st questions from new contributors trend stabilizes. The change does not indicate a clear improvement according to its goal. This data set is sparse compared to the other datasets. Also, the vote scores are high compared to other datasets.
\begin{figure}[H] \begin{figure}[H]
@@ -297,7 +297,7 @@ On electronics.stackexchange.com the average sentiment decreases continuously pr
Similarly, the vote score trend does not improve either and keeps decreasing after the change, however, the vote score does make a big leap upwards at the change. The vote score is trend is not affected by the change. Similarly, the vote score trend does not improve either and keeps decreasing after the change, however, the vote score does make a big leap upwards at the change. The vote score is trend is not affected by the change.
The number of 1st questions rises continuously prior to the change but decreases thereafter. The number of follow-up questions falls slightly prior to the change and stabilizes afterward. This indicates fewer new users, and that the change negatively impacted the number of new users. The number of 1st questions rises continuously prior to the change but decreases thereafter. The number of follow-up questions falls slightly prior to the change and stabilizes afterward. This indicates fewer new users, and that the change negatively impacted the number of new users. However, the number of followup questions increases slighly after the change. Eventhough the number of new user decreases after the change the amount of followup questions incrases, indicating the number of one-day-flies decreases \cite{slag2015one}.
In summary, the sentiment does not seem to be affected. The vote score continues its downward trend although on a higher level than before. The number of questions from new contributors trend does not show real improvements. This indicates that the change does not clearly improve interactions within the community. In summary, the sentiment does not seem to be affected. The vote score continues its downward trend although on a higher level than before. The number of questions from new contributors trend does not show real improvements. This indicates that the change does not clearly improve interactions within the community.
\begin{figure}[H] \begin{figure}[H]

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text/6_discussion.tex
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@@ -6,33 +6,29 @@ The ITS analysis of the investigated communities shows mixed results. Some commu
\section{Benefitters} \section{Benefitters}
There are 6 communities that profit of the change in some form: StackOverflow, AskUbuntu, ServerFault, stats.stackexchange.com, tex.stackexchange.com, and unix.stackexchange.com. There are 6 communities that profit of the change in some form: StackOverflow, AskUbuntu, ServerFault, stats.stackexchange.com, tex.stackexchange.com, and unix.stackexchange.com.
The StackOverflow community has a fairly stable average sentiment before the change. The average sentiment jumps to a higher level and keeps rising after the change is introduced. Furthermore, the number of 1st questions from new contributors starts rising drastically after the change while prior levels stagnate. Also, the follow-up questions start increasing slightly. The votes score trend takes a new direction 9 months before the change and is unrelated to it. The change has a positive effect on the StackOverflow community. %TODO 1 ref The StackOverflow community has a fairly stable average sentiment before the change. The average sentiment jumps to a higher level and keeps rising after the change is introduced. Furthermore, the number of 1st questions from new contributors starts rising drastically after the change while prior levels stagnate. Also, the follow-up questions start increasing slightly. The votes score trend takes a new direction 9 months before the change and is unrelated to it. The change has a positive effect on the StackOverflow community. The graph with number of questions from new contributors shows a good example of seasonality in data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. The month 0 indicates August. For the 1st questions, the months -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are all a local minimum. These months are Decembers. The months -31 to -27, -19 to -15, -7 to -3, and 5 to 9 show a pattern with 3 upward spikes. During December, the people of large portions of the world are going through a holiday season which may likely explain these regular dips in contribution. The graph for the follow up questions also shows dips in months of December.
AskUbuntu shows an interesting zig-zag pattern in the average sentiment graph. Also, the average sentiment falls before the change and raises thereafter, indicating that the change works for this community. However, further data is needed to see if the zig-zag pattern repeats itself. The number of 1st questions starts increasing again after the change stopping the downward trend before that. %TODO 1 ref AskUbuntu shows an interesting zig-zag pattern in the average sentiment graph every 20 months. However, this is not a seasonal effect, as seasonal effects are base on a 12 month cycle \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. Also, the average sentiment falls before the change and raises thereafter, indicating that the change works for this community. However, further data is needed to see if the zig-zag pattern repeats itself. The number of 1st questions starts increasing again after the change stopping the downward trend before that.
%TODO spike at -18 months correlates to new user increase (defaulting)
%TODO maybe also write in results
On stats.stackexchange.com the average sentiment falls before the change but since the change, the downward trend stops and the sentiment starts to rise slowly, suggesting the change has a positive effect on the community. This is supported by the increase in the number of 1st and followup questions by new contributors. The vote score takes a dip after the change but starts to recover after 12 months which could be the result of another factor. %TODO 1 ref On stats.stackexchange.com the average sentiment falls before the change but since the change, the downward trend stops and the sentiment starts to rise slowly, suggesting the change has a positive effect on the community. This is supported by the increase in the number of 1st and followup questions by new contributors. The vote score takes a dip after the change but starts to recover after 12 months which could be the result of another factor. The same time frame the number of 1st questions increases a lot which means a more new contributors contribute to the community. Due to this influx of new users the community metrics suffer of a period of time but recover afterward. This effect is also described in \cite{lin2017better} however the cause and effect in this case are not as pronounced.
%TODO see text in results, vote score and 1st questin same timeframe (defaulting)
In the tex.stackexchange.com community sentiments are stable before the change and show a stark rising pattern after the change. The change seems to work for this community but future data will be necessary to see if the rising pattern continues in the shown manner. The votes score ITS does not fit the model and values before and after the change indicate a linear downward trend. However, the number of 1st questions increases slightly after the change while the prior trend shows a decreasing development. %TODO 1 ref In the tex.stackexchange.com community sentiments are stable before the change and show a stark rising pattern after the change. The change seems to work for this community but future data will be necessary to see if the rising pattern continues in the shown manner. The votes score ITS does not fit the model and values before and after the change indicate a linear downward trend. However, the number of 1st questions increases slightly after the change while the prior trend shows a decreasing development. The number of followup questions still continues a downward trend, indicating that the new contributors tend to become one-day-flies \cite{slag2015one}. By looking at the the graph of the 1st questions, the months of -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are local minima, indicating seasonality in the data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. Theses months are all in December where the people of large parts of the world are on holiday.
unix.stackexchange.com also shows a decreasing pattern prior and a rising pattern in sentiment after the change. The vote score analysis shows a fairly linear downward trend before and after the change and is not affected by it. However, the number of 1st questions by new contributors starts to drastically increase while before the change the levels are constant, indicating this community also profits from the change. %TODO 1 ref unix.stackexchange.com also shows a decreasing pattern prior and a rising pattern in sentiment after the change. The vote score analysis shows a fairly linear downward trend before and after the change and is not affected by it. However, the number of 1st questions by new contributors starts to drastically increase while before the change the levels are constant, indicating this community also profits from the change. %TODO 1 ref, nothing found
On ServerFault the sentiment rises gradually before the change, jumps upward by a small value when the change is introduced and the sentiment falls slowly thereafter but the levels are pretty stable over the analyzed period. The vote scores show the change has a huge impact on the community. The previously decreasing trend jumps up by a large amount. However, the vote score rapidly returns to levels right before the change. Contrary, the number of first questions turns direction and starts increasing at the same rate it is falling previously. %TODO 1 ref On ServerFault the sentiment rises gradually before the change, jumps upward by a small value when the change is introduced and the sentiment falls slowly thereafter but the levels are pretty stable over the analyzed period. The vote scores show the change has a huge impact on the community. The previously decreasing trend jumps up by a large amount. However, the vote score rapidly returns to levels right before the change. Contrary, the number of first questions turns direction and starts increasing at the same rate it is falling previously. %TODO 1 ref, nothing found
%~ - - %~ - -
\section{No benefits/no evidence} \section{No benefits/no evidence}
The other 4 communities do not seem to profit from the change so clearly: Mathoverflow, math.stackexchange.com, electronics.stackexchange.com, and SuperUser. Some of these communities still improve in certain aspects but the overall picture of the analysis does not allow an improving conclusion. The other 4 communities do not seem to profit from the change so clearly: Mathoverflow, math.stackexchange.com, electronics.stackexchange.com, and SuperUser. Some of these communities still improve in certain aspects but the overall picture of the analysis does not allow an improving conclusion.
The average sentiment stays constant on MathOverflow before the change and decreases afterward. The sentiment levels start increasing six months before the change and are unrelated. However, the sentiment falls sharply at the change date, indicating the sentiment values are affected negatively by the change. The vote score is steadily increasing before the change and the crashes down shortly after the change. However, the vote score is very high compared to other communities. The number of 1st questions stabilizes after the change compared to the slight downward previously. %TODO 1 ref The average sentiment stays constant on MathOverflow before the change and decreases afterward. The sentiment levels start increasing six months before the change and are unrelated. However, the sentiment falls sharply at the change date, indicating the sentiment values are affected negatively by the change. The vote score is steadily increasing before the change and the crashes down shortly after the change. However, the vote score is very high compared to other communities. The number of 1st questions stabilizes after the change compared to the slight downward previously. By looking at the the graph of the 1st questions, the months of -41, -29, -17, -5, and 7 are local maxima, indicating seasonality in the data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. Theses months are all in March. Also while the number of 1st questions stablized to a constant trend, the number of followup questions descreases, indicating that the new users tend more to become one-day-flies as time passed on \cite{slag2015one}.
math.stackexchange.com shows a downward trend before and after the change for sentiment and vote score. The sentiment ITS is particularly affected by the low sentiment values at the end and future data is required to determine if this trend continues. However, the number of 1st questions stabilizes a bit after changes and follow up questions even see and a slight increase after the change. %TODO 1 ref math.stackexchange.com shows a downward trend before and after the change for sentiment and vote score. The sentiment ITS is particularly affected by the low sentiment values at the end and future data is required to determine if this trend continues. However, the number of 1st questions stabilizes a bit after changes and follow up questions even see and a slight increase after the change. The graph with number of questions from new contributors shows a good example of seasonality in data \cite{bernal2017interrupted}. The month 0 indicates August. For the 1st questions, the months -44, -32, -20, -8, 4, and 16 are all a local minimum. These months are Decembers. Similarly, the months -38 and -37, -26 and -25, -14 and -13, -2 and -1, and 10 and 11 are all in June and July. During both these times the people large portions of the world are going through a holiday season which may likely explain these regular dips in contribution. The graph for the follow up questions also shows dips at the same times, although the dips in December are not always as decernible.
The electronics.stackexchange.com community has a similar pattern for the sentiment value and vote scores compared to math.stackexchange.com. However, the sentiment values seem to recover after about 12 months and future data is required to see if the rise at the end of the period is a long term trend. The rising number of first questions of new contributors stops at the change date and transition into a decreasing pattern. %TODO 1 ref The electronics.stackexchange.com community has a similar pattern for the sentiment value and vote scores compared to math.stackexchange.com. However, the sentiment values seem to recover after about 12 months and future data is required to see if the rise at the end of the period is a long term trend. The rising number of first questions of new contributors stops at the change date and transition into a decreasing pattern. However, the number of followup questions increases slighly after the change. Eventhough the number of new user decreases after the change the amount of followup questions incrases, indicating the number of one-day-flies decreases \cite{slag2015one}.
SuperUser shows an odd pattern. The average sentiment values and votes scores are stable before the change and decrease dramatically shortly afterward. However, the sentiment recovers after 12 months. The ITS model chosen in this thesis is not able to capture the apparent pattern. However, the number of 1st question skyrockets indicating a huge influx of new users. The time frames of the falling sentiment values and vote scores, and the rising number of first questions overlap, indicating the huge influx of new users is responsible for the falling patterns. %TODO 1 ref SuperUser shows an odd pattern. The average sentiment values and votes scores are stable before the change and decrease dramatically shortly afterward. However, the sentiment recovers after 12 months. The ITS model chosen in this thesis is not able to capture the apparent pattern. However, the number of 1st question skyrockets indicating a huge influx of new users. The time frames of the falling sentiment values and vote scores, and the rising number of first questions overlap, indicating the huge influx of new users is responsible for the falling patterns. This is a good example of the \emph{defaulting} described in \cite{lin2017better}. While the community metrics suffer of a period of time, they start to recover after some time. Also, while the number of 1st questions skyrockets, the number of followup questions stays largely the same, indicating most of the new users are in fact one-day-flies \cite{slag2015one}.
%TODO ref defaulting
% similarities in results and differences % similarities in results and differences
% so: only community that shows a clear improvement when comapred to prior to change sentiment % so: only community that shows a clear improvement when comapred to prior to change sentiment
@@ -46,24 +42,35 @@ SuperUser shows an odd pattern. The average sentiment values and votes scores ar
% tex: sentiments took up a bit after the change; change seems to works % tex: sentiments took up a bit after the change; change seems to works
% unix: sentiments falling prior but gainig after; change seems to work % unix: sentiments falling prior but gainig after; change seems to work
\section{Summary}%TODO better headline \section{Summary}
By and large, the change introduced by the StackExchange team has a clear positive effect on more than half of the investigated communities. Two of the communities, SuperUser and stats.stackexchange.com, have a delayed temporary decrease in sentiment which recovers after about 12 months, which may be attributable to the larger influx of new contributors. The selected ITS model is not designed to capture the sentiment pattern of these communities. math.stackexchange.com is not really affected by the change, although the number of 1st questions stabilized a bit and follow-up questions from new contributors increase again. MathOverflow shows a similar picture. %TODO better headline
%TODO ref defaulting %DONE write about seasonality. math.stackexchange.com, MathOverflow, tex.stackexchange.com, AskUbuntu, StackOverflow
%DROP write about onedayflies. SuperUser, electronics.stackexchange.com, MathOverflow, tex.stackexchange.com, more likely dont write about this, justification too hard
%DONE write about defaulting
%TODO more refs?
By and large, the change introduced by the StackExchange team has a clear positive effect on more than half of the investigated communities. The sentiments of answers to questions of new contributors increases as well as the the number of questions from new contributors. The vote score is not particularly affected by the change.
math.stackexchange.com is not really affected by the change, although the number of 1st questions stabilized a bit and follow-up questions from new contributors increase again. MathOverflow shows a similar picture. The sentiment on electronics.stackexchange.com also is not particularly affected by the change and continues to decrease.
Two of the communities, SuperUser and stats.stackexchange.com, have a delayed temporary decrease in sentiment which recovers after about 12 months, which may be attributable to the larger influx of new contributors \cite{lin2017better}. The selected ITS model is not designed to capture the sentiment pattern of these communities.
Five of the communities, AskUbuntu, math.stackexchange.com, MathOverflow, StackOverflow, and tex.stackexchange.com, show seasonality \cite{bernal2017interrupted} in the number of contributions from new users. In most of these communities, in the month of December the number of contributions fall to a local minimum. The mostly likely explanation is that large parts of the world are on holiday in the later half of December, thus decreasing the number of contributions.
% expectations from before the experiment and how they match with results % expectations from before the experiment and how they match with results
% did change from SE produce the desired results? % did change from SE produce the desired results?
Some investigated data sets show interesting patterns. StackOverflow shows the clearest results of all the investigated communities and closely resembles the example ITS shown in section 3. The result matches the expectation, that advising answerers to remember the code of conduct when answering questions from new contributors will increase the welcomingness and friendliness of the community, and shows that the change introduced by the StackExchange team works well for this community. The AskUbuntu community shows an interesting zig-zag pattern where sentiment gradually rises over time and then falls abruptly. Some investigated data sets show interesting patterns. StackOverflow shows the clearest results of all the investigated communities and closely resembles the example ITS shown in section 3. The result matches the expectation, that advising answerers to remember the code of conduct when answering questions from new contributors will increase the welcomingness and friendliness of the community, and shows that the change introduced by the StackExchange team works well for this community.
%The AskUbuntu community shows an interesting zig-zag pattern where sentiment gradually rises over time and then falls abruptly.%TODO this sentence, wtf is it doing here, does not fit at all
% interesting single results? % interesting single results?
The average sentiment of the StackOverflow community is the most stable in terms of deviation from the regression. This is expected as StackOverflow is the largest community by far and has the most questions created by newcomers. On the other hand, MathOverflow is the sparsest community and has the least amount of questions from new contributors. The level of the average sentiment also varies greatly between communities. stats.stackexchange.com has the highest level of average sentiment compared to the other communities, whereas, tex.stackexchange.com has the lowest level average sentiment. MathOverflow has the highest level of vote scores by far. Also, in most communities, the number of questions from new contributors slowly decreases over time. This may be a result of the filling of gaps in the knowledge repository over time. The average sentiment of the StackOverflow community is the most stable in terms of deviation from the regression. This is expected as StackOverflow is the largest community by far and has the most questions created by newcomers. On the other hand, MathOverflow is the sparsest community and has the least amount of questions from new contributors. The level of the average sentiment also varies greatly between communities. stats.stackexchange.com has the highest level of average sentiment compared to the other communities, whereas, tex.stackexchange.com has the lowest level average sentiment. MathOverflow has the highest level of vote scores by far. Also, in most communities, the number of questions from new contributors slowly decreases over time. This may be a result of the filling of gaps in the knowledge repository over time. %TODO ref for last sentence
% as expected #answers per month vary greatly -> mabye into data sets section % as expected #answers per month vary greatly -> mabye into data sets section
% some communties have a high average sentiment compared to others % some communties have a high average sentiment compared to others
% mathoverflow very sparse, stackoverflow densest obviously as biggets community 100x more users % mathoverflow very sparse, stackoverflow densest obviously as biggets community 100x more users
% fewer questions by new users over time? + explaination % fewer questions by new users over time? + explaination
%future research %future research %TODO may write something here
% investigate different change pattern and why they occured % investigate different change pattern and why they occured